Nevin's Data "Points"

In recent days—notably at the State of the Union address—Social Security is back in the headlines. Granted, its invocation seems largely intended as a political dividing rod, but it seems today that the vast majority (and despite the veiled insinuations, perhaps the entirety) of Congress and the President are committed to that system’s preservation, or at least rebutting its diminution. It appears that touching Social Security remains the “third rail” of American politics. That said, it’s going to take more than bold podium pontifications to fulfill that commitment. It’s been called a Ponzi scheme by its critics—and, while not technically correct, there is a familiar element at work—the notion that money being deposited to the system now is basically going to be paid out to other beneficiaries. Indeed, in most Ponzi structures the scheme “runner” generally pays off longer-term participants with money invested by newer investors. Sooner or later, there are not enough new...

This week was Valentine's Day—and, as usual, there’s been the typical seasonal promotions for flowers, candy, and even pajamas.  I’ve been pretty good over the years remembering those type events—anniversaries (wedding AND dating), birthdays and, yes—Valentine’s Day. But sometimes the time gap between my remembering the date and actually getting around to doing something to commemorate it has been problematic. With Valentine’s Day that can be particularly painful, if only because so many others are scrambling to do the same thing—and at a time when delivery services (and costs), not to mention growing season(s) can be in short supply, relative to the need. Several years back, I was running late in my preparations—and spotted an email touting a dozen roses for $24.99 (they’re a LOT more expensive now). Of course, for that price (even then), you could only get them in red (though it was Valentine’s Day, after all), and you actually got a glass vase included in that pr...

Will your 401(k) be chipped by the Chiefs—or soar with the Eagles? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 56 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need to look back no further than last year’s victory by the Los Angeles Rams that should have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its biggest loss since 2008.  And while the previous year’s victory by the NFC’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers bolstered the premise behind the “theory,” the year before that the win by the AFC’s (and original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs over the then-NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers...

There are few things more disruptive to the peace or clarity of a 401(k) plan than a switch in recordkeepers. Let’s face it—change—even change for the better—is frequently disruptive to the human psyche. Most of us tend to drift into comfortable “ruts” of pattern, or perhaps habit—places where we know what to expect and, roughly anyway, when to expect it. And, at least in my experience, the more frazzled your existence, the more one pines for these oases of quiet and relative clarity. That’s true, of course, even when the change is instigated by a regular, thoughtful, focused evaluation of the alternatives; and certainly when that change is the product of a desperate quest driven by a truly awful service relationship. But it is perhaps particularly disruptive when the change is thrust on the plan by forces outside of its control or instigation—and for the thousands of plans that have recently or are in the process of a change in recordkeepers due to industry consolidat...