Nevin's Data "Points"

Will your 401(k) be chipped by the Chiefs—or soar with the Eagles? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 56 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need to look back no further than last year’s victory by the Los Angeles Rams that should have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its biggest loss since 2008.  And while the previous year’s victory by the NFC’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers bolstered the premise behind the “theory,” the year before that the win by the AFC’s (and original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs over the then-NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers...

Will your 401(k) be bitten by the Bengals—or rally with the Rams? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [i]  would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 55 Super Bowls, in fact. And sure enough, last year’s win by the NFC’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers provided support for that notion, as the S&P 500 gained ground.   Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need look back no further than the previous year’s win by the AFC’s (and original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs over the then-NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers to refute the applicability (or did your 401(k) miss that 18.4% rise in the S&P 500?). Or how about the year before that when the AFC’s New England Pat...