Nevin's Data "Points"

  “Sure, it will probably be more work, and generate fewer clicks,” commented one industry source, “but it’s the right thing to do.” Yes, after years of relying on uninformed “guesses” from individuals ignorant of their financial needs and situation, the retirement industry, major media outlets, and a large number of academics have made a commitment to focus on actual data, rather than hypothetical extrapolations from incomplete datasets. Another explained, “we always thought that exaggerating the depth of the retirement crisis would encourage people to save more — but that turns out not to be the case.” Those projections affixed labels like “ magic ” to those extrapolated numbers based on surveys of uninformed workers, which not only ignored real differences in incomes, location and age, but were typically also averaged to further obscure accurate results. Likely fueled by previous reports of needed retirement savings,  surveys of individuals routinely exaggerated  the r...

   A recent headline asks: “ Why Aren’t We Talking About America’s Retirement Crisis?”   Really? It seems to me that that’s ALL we’re talking about! Even more ironically, that headline appeared in an op-ed crafted by none other than Teresa Ghilarducci (and her new co-author, Christopher Cook) who, so far as I can discern, talks (and writes books) about little other than the so-called “crisis.” And this specific op-ed, as hers often do, got picked up in syndication (see  this link for details ).   But then, this week I stumbled across a LinkedIn post from Andrew Biggs, which matter-of-factly stated, “After a period of trying-in-good-faith, I've concluded I have to be more, um, forthright in calling out, shall we say, misinformation regarding Americans' retirement income security.” Said another way, it appears that Mr. Biggs has come to the conclusion –  as I have  – that polite commentary and even-handed discussions are insufficient to put to bed w...

“What if the entire retirement-crisis narrative playing out in opinion polls, the government, and the media was a massive case of confirmation bias?” That’s the provocative position of an intriguing new white paper titled “ America’s ‘Retirement Crisis’: The Emperor Has No Clothes ” by  Andrew Biggs . [i]   Readers of my work will note that with frightening regularity there are any number of assertions, “studies” and surveys all painting a dismal picture of the state of the nation’s retirement—each and every one embraced and promoted with attention-grabbing headlines without so much as a question as to the veracity of the underlying data, the logic of the conclusions drawn, or the motivations of the proponents that have drawn them. Consequently, I was delighted to come across this paper that provides a detailed, thoughtful, and data-driven analysis that focuses on a number of points that have been made (and uncritically trumpeted by the media) by none other than Teresa Ghilard...

Critics of the 401(k) have moved way beyond mere bad-mouthing—and are now openly advocating actions that would undermine support for, and participation in, those programs. It started with criticism of the 401(k) itself—how it was “never intended” to be a primary source of retirement income—as though that precluded the possibility. There were the insinuations that later became outright claims that—despite evidence to the contrary—401(k) plan benefits were “ upside down ” and that tax benefits accrued only to the rich. Then reports—based on small samplings of data—that employer matching contributions didn’t really impact/influence contribution levels—and that the match was…“ unfair ”—or “ exploiting naïve myopic workers .” More recently, there was the  pining for the defined benefit plan design , even though it never really provided the level of benefits promised for most—and even though the vast majority of workers in the private sector  never even had that as an option —and ev...