Nevin's Data "Points"

Will your 401(k) be chopped by the Chiefs—or find gold with the 49ers? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 57 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the goal line.  Portfolio Prognostications One needs to look back no further than last year’s victory by the (original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs that, according to the Indicator, should have predicted a portfolio predicament for the S&P 500—but wound up with a 25% gain for the year. Or the year before that when the victory by the Los Angeles Rams “should” have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its ...

Will your portfolio be fortified by a 49ers win – or get chipped by the Chiefs? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory would likely conclude. The Super Bowl Theory holds that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time – for 40 of the 53 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need look back no further than last year’s win by the AFC’s New England Patriots over the NFC champion Los Angeles Rams to find an exception – the S&P 500 was up more than 30% in 2019. And then it was just the year before that a win by the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles against the AFC Champion Patriots (who once were the AFL’s Boston Patriots) also turned out to be a loser, marketwise, with the S&P 500 down more than 6% (though...

Ravens or 49ers – either way, your stock portfolio could have something to cheer about this year. According to the Super Bowl Theory, which was invented/popularized by the late New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett, a Super Bowl win by a team from the old National Football League is a precursor to rising stock values for the year (at least as measured by the S&P 500), but if a team from the old American Football League (AFL) prevails, stocks will fall in the coming year. As it turns out both teams in Super Bowl XLVII - the Baltimore Ravens (by way of NFL legacy Cleveland Browns) and the San Francisco 49ers – are NFL legacy – and thus, regardless of which team wins, a legacy NFL team will prevail. Of course, looking back over the years, the record is a bit, shall we say, “inconsistent.” It “worked”for 12 of the first 13 Super Bowls – and, over 45 Super Bowls, it’s proven to be “accurate” 35 times. On the other hand, over the past 15 years, it has only held true about...