Nevin's Data "Points"

 A new paper rehashes (and embraces) some old beliefs, blatantly ignores the full impact of workplace savings, disregards the reality that deferrals are temporary—and kills a lot of trees in the process.   The diatribe’s author, perhaps because he’s affiliated with a law school, perhaps because the paper (provocatively titled “ The Great American Retirement Fraud ”) is so long (82 pages), managed to get what amounts to a long-winded pontification published by the Social Science Research Network [i] —a network that normally publishes research.  There’s little new here, and painfully little substance—though he does affix a label—“the Retirement Reform Project”—to the “conspiracy” he crafts between employers, investment management firms, advisors and those that support their interests. At the crux of this imagined conspiracy is none other than Rob Portman and Ben Cardin. Yes, that Portman and Cardin!   Reform ‘School’? Indeed, he claims this “...

Just when you thought retirement plan projections couldn’t get any worse… Last week the National Institute on Retirement Security released a report – “ Retirement in America | Out of Reach for Most Americans? ” that claimed that the median retirement account balance among all working individuals is… $0.00. Moreover, that same report claims that “57 percent (more than 100 million) of working age individuals do not own any retirement account assets in an employer-sponsored 401(k)-type plan, individual account or pension.” It’s not the first time the NIRS has produced reports finding significant problems with the nation’s private retirement system. Indeed, this report “builds on previous NIRS research published in 2015,” though the conclusions presented here seem unusually stark. Then, as now, the NIRS conclusions rely heavily on self-reported numbers from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program P...

As human beings, we’re drawn to perspectives, including surveys and studies that validate our sense of the world. This “ confirmation bias ,” as it’s called, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. It also tends to make us discount findings that run afoul of our existing beliefs. In its simplest terms then, when you see a headline that confirms your sense of the world, you’ll be naturally inclined to embrace and remember it as a validation of what you already perceive reality to be. Even if the grounds supporting that premise are shaky, sketchy, or (shudder) downright scurrilous. Here are some things to look for – likely in the fine print – as you evaluate those findings. There can be a difference between what people say they will (or might) do and what they actually will. No matter how well targeted they are, surveys (and studies that incorporate the outcome of surveys) must rely on w...