Nevin's Data "Points"

   The Patriots and Seahawks have some Super Bowl history — and some think the outcome might have an impact on the stock market — not to mention your 401(k)!  Yes, that’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [i]  would have you believe — based on a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time — for roughly three-quarters of the 59 Super Bowls to date. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the “goal” line…particularly in recent years. Portfolio Prognostications One need to look back no further than last year’s victory by the NFC/original NFL Philadelphia Eagles commanding victory over the AFC/original AFL Kansas City Chiefs to see a testament to this theory — as the S&P 500 closed up nearly 17% in 2025. That said, you mig...

   Will your 401(k) be chopped by the Chiefs — or soar with the Eagles? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator[1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time — for 41 of the 58 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the goal line. Portfolio Prognostications One needs to look back no further than last year’s victory by the (original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs that, according to the Indicator, should have predicated a portfolio predicament for the S&P 500 — but wound up with a 23% gain for the year. Or the year before that when those (same) Kansas City Chiefs prevailed over the original NFL 49ers — but the S&P 500 still rose 25%. On the other hand, the year before ...

Will your 401(k) be chopped by the Chiefs—or find gold with the 49ers? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 57 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the goal line.  Portfolio Prognostications One needs to look back no further than last year’s victory by the (original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs that, according to the Indicator, should have predicted a portfolio predicament for the S&P 500—but wound up with a 25% gain for the year. Or the year before that when the victory by the Los Angeles Rams “should” have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its ...

Will your 401(k) be chipped by the Chiefs—or soar with the Eagles? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 56 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need to look back no further than last year’s victory by the Los Angeles Rams that should have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its biggest loss since 2008.  And while the previous year’s victory by the NFC’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers bolstered the premise behind the “theory,” the year before that the win by the AFC’s (and original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs over the then-NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers...

Will your 401(k) be bitten by the Bengals—or rally with the Rams? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [i]  would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 55 Super Bowls, in fact. And sure enough, last year’s win by the NFC’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers provided support for that notion, as the S&P 500 gained ground.   Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need look back no further than the previous year’s win by the AFC’s (and original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs over the then-NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers to refute the applicability (or did your 401(k) miss that 18.4% rise in the S&P 500?). Or how about the year before that when the AFC’s New England Pat...