Nevin's Data "Points"

   The Patriots and Seahawks have some Super Bowl history — and some think the outcome might have an impact on the stock market — not to mention your 401(k)!  Yes, that’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [i]  would have you believe — based on a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time — for roughly three-quarters of the 59 Super Bowls to date. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the “goal” line…particularly in recent years. Portfolio Prognostications One need to look back no further than last year’s victory by the NFC/original NFL Philadelphia Eagles commanding victory over the AFC/original AFL Kansas City Chiefs to see a testament to this theory — as the S&P 500 closed up nearly 17% in 2025. That said, you mig...

Will your portfolio soar with the Seahawks, or get pummeled by the Patriots? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory would likely predict. The Super Bowl Theory holds that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, whereas when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time; for 38 of the 48 Super Bowls, in fact. It certainly “worked” in 2014, when these same Seattle Seahawks bumped the Broncos, a legacy AFL team, and in 2013, when a dramatic fourth quarter comeback rescued a victory by the Baltimore Ravens who, though representing the AFC, are technically a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Browns roots. Admittedly, that the markets fared well in 2013 was hardly a true test of the Super Bowl Theory since, as it turned out, both teams in Super Bowl XLVII — the Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers — were ...

Will your portfolio soar with the Seahawks, or get kicked by the Broncos?   That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory—which maintains that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, whereas should a team from the old American Football League prevail, stock prices would be expected to fall—would likely predict. Sure enough, last year’s victory by the Baltimore Ravens (who, it might be recalled, are really a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Brown roots) coincided with a 29.6 percent gain for the S&P 500.   Moreover, the indicator has been correct 37 of the last 47 years, or nearly 79 percent of the time. Not only has the Super Bowl Indicator consistently predicted the direction of the market, but returns when the old NFL wins and when the AFL wins are dramatically different, according to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal , which notes that the Dow has averaged a healthy 11.6 percent...