Nevin's Data "Points"

  Readers of these columns know that for years I held off rolling over my old 401(k) balances. Oh, I had rational reasons for (not) doing so; the institutional pricing of a particular fund in one, the low fees in another, the managed account option in a third—but the reality was that the process of rolling over your accumulated savings has been—and in many cases remains—painful. Rollovers are a big deal. Vanguard reports that annual contributions to IRAs ($701 billion as of 2020) far exceed all DC plan contributions, largely due to rollovers ($618 billion in 2020), while the Investment Company Institute claims that investors now hold an estimated $13.5 trillion in IRAs—“approximately $3 trillion more than in DC plans, despite the fact that 45 million fewer Americans own IRAs than participate in DC plans,” according to the report Two things, in particular, stayed my hand over the years—trying to time the liquidation of funds (I know, but I’m human), and worrying about the timing I’d...

 Our industry has long fretted over how 401(k) participants will respond to volatile markets. And perhaps not surprisingly, these days the headlines are, generally speaking, full of “stay the course” assurances.    That said, as recently as a month ago the headlines—even OUR headlines read things like “Light 401(k) Trades in July Even as Wall Street Posts Strong Month, Hot July Brought Cool 401(k) Traders , July Brings Much-Needed Calm to 401k Trading Activity, 401(k) Trading Light in July Despite Market Gains.” As though this is a surprising result. In fact, as long as I can remember, our industry (or at least its headline writers) has long been somewhat amazed that participants have been as “resilient” in the face of volatile markets as they have—consistently—been over time. We’ve rationalized that ostensibly rational behavior in different ways, at different times. In 1987 (before there was daily trading in 401(k)s) it was said that the markets had ...

A recent headline screamed that 401(k) savings rates have “stagnated” – but that’s missing the point. Several of them, actually. “Stagnated” in this case apparently means that the average savings rate in 2018 — both employee and employer contributions — was 10.6%, roughly the same as the 10.4% rate reported in the survey in 2004. The point seems to be that, despite roughly a decade of automatic enrollment and other plan design enhancements, Americans aren’t saving any more. That’s a perfectly obvious point to draw from those two datapoints – in this case from the recent 2019 How America Saves report from Vanguard which, while it only covers plans recordkept by Vanguard, the experience of 1,900 plans and 5 million participants in the survey always provides some interesting insights. First a couple of basics; what do you suppose the odds are that we have the same plans (and participants) in the 2004 and 2019 surveys? Exactly. So, while it may not be apples to or...