Nevin's Data "Points"

Will your 401(k) be bumped up by a Buccaneers victory—or chipped by the Chiefs? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory would likely conclude, after all. The theory is that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 40 of the 54 Super Bowls, in fact.  Not that it hasn’t had its shortcomings. One need look back no further than last year’s win by the AFC’s Kansas City Chiefs (yes,  these  Kansas City Chiefs) over the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers to refute the applicability (or did your 401(k) miss that 18.4% rise in the S&P 500?). Or how about the year before that when the AFC’s New England Patriots (who once were the AFL’s Boston Patriots) bested the NFC champion Los Angeles Rams (the S&P 500 was up more...

By now, you’ve heard — and perhaps dispensed — what appears to be the “common wisdom” about the recent market tumult: “stay the course,” “ride it out,” and my personal favorite, “don’t just do something, stand there.” For all our industry’s long-standing concern about participant inertia, in times like these the inclination to “do nothing” is undoubtedly to the benefit of most participants. That said, one can well imagine that those who are turning to their advisors for help and guidance (wonder what the robo-advisors are saying?) might be a little frustrated with the admonition that the best thing for them to do right now is… nothing. Early indications are that most retirement plan participants will — again — ride this one out (though there are some exceptions . But, hey — while the markets have your attention, here are five things participants can, and should, do: Check your account balance. While a lot of experts will tell you to avoid looking at your account right after a b...

Will your portfolio soar with the Seahawks, or get pummeled by the Patriots? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory would likely predict. The Super Bowl Theory holds that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, whereas when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time; for 38 of the 48 Super Bowls, in fact. It certainly “worked” in 2014, when these same Seattle Seahawks bumped the Broncos, a legacy AFL team, and in 2013, when a dramatic fourth quarter comeback rescued a victory by the Baltimore Ravens who, though representing the AFC, are technically a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Browns roots. Admittedly, that the markets fared well in 2013 was hardly a true test of the Super Bowl Theory since, as it turned out, both teams in Super Bowl XLVII — the Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers — were ...

Will your portfolio soar with the Seahawks, or get kicked by the Broncos?   That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory—which maintains that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, whereas should a team from the old American Football League prevail, stock prices would be expected to fall—would likely predict. Sure enough, last year’s victory by the Baltimore Ravens (who, it might be recalled, are really a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Brown roots) coincided with a 29.6 percent gain for the S&P 500.   Moreover, the indicator has been correct 37 of the last 47 years, or nearly 79 percent of the time. Not only has the Super Bowl Indicator consistently predicted the direction of the market, but returns when the old NFL wins and when the AFL wins are dramatically different, according to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal , which notes that the Dow has averaged a healthy 11.6 percent...