Nevin's Data "Points"

  It’s been said that a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. But what if it’s a figment of your imagination? “Crisis” is a word much bandied about these days, most particularly as a label applied to retirement—by foes and fans alike. Indeed, while not so long ago headlines posed that premise as a question (“Is there a retirement crisis?”), it is now generally posited as a current reality (often accompanied by an exclamation point)—even though an examination of objective data (and a clinical application of the term “crisis” [i] ) suggests otherwise. To a certain extent, such hyperbole is understandable; “crisis” is, after all, one of those descriptors that cry out for swift and decisive action—and the industry of employee benefits has had its fair share. Let's be honest - claiming that we are in the middle of a crisis is most assuredly a better bet in terms of getting a book deal, a televised interview, or hundreds of thousands of “clicks.” And certainly over the course of my career...

Rarely a week goes by that a headline, survey or academic paper doesn’t proclaim the reality of a retirement crisis with the certainty generally reserved for topics like the existence of gravity, or the notion that the sun will rise in the east. And certainly based on the data cited, there would seem to be a compelling case that trouble lies ahead for many. That said – as was pointed out by Andrew Biggs at the recent Plan Sponsor Council of America conference – the reality is that good, reliable data is hard to come by. Indeed, many of the reports cited in those headlines rely on what you would expect to be a reliable source; the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, or CPS. 1 Unfortunately, that reliable source turns out to be not-quite-so-reliable. It suffers from relying on what people tell the survey takers, but perhaps more significantly, Biggs, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that the survey only counts as income in r...

“Houston, we have a problem.” That’s perhaps the most famous quote from one of my favorite movies—the 1995 “Apollo 13,” the story of the ill-fated moon landing mission of the same name. As the third such undertaking, it was a mission that the nation largely ignored—until that mission ran into trouble. Trouble in this case meant having an oxygen tank explode two days into their trip to the moon, which led to a reduction in power, loss of heat in the cabin, a shortage of drinkable water, and ultimately the need to jury-rig the system that removed carbon dioxide from the cabin. Arguably, Apollo 13 didn’t have a “problem”; they had a crisis, and one that threatened their very lives. While we’re a few years removed from the financial crisis that led to the so-called Great Recession, “crisis” is a word much bandied about these days. Crisis is, after all, one of those descriptors that cry out for swift and decisive action—and the industry of employee benefits has its fair share. Thus,...