Groundhog "Ways"
February 2 is the day upon which America turns its attention to Punxsutawney, PA (and what seems to be a rapidly expanding array of Punxsutawney Phil wannabes) to get a read on the duration of winter. The theory, of course, is that if your local groundhog sees his (or her?) shadow when he/she emerges from his/her burrow, it will send him/her scurrying back inside, and with that action foretell six more weeks of winter, whereas no shadow portends a timely/early spring. However, like weather forecasters everywhere, Phil is often wrong in his predictions. Indeed, by some estimates (and going back to 1887) he’s only been right… 39% of the time (and since 1969, only about 36% [i] ). As complicated as it surely must be to accurately predict the end of winter, that at least is an event in the relatively near term. And one that (for Punxsutawney Prognostication, anyway) requires only the emergence from one’s burrow. Predicting retirement outcomes… well, that’s a whole o...