Nevin's Data "Points"

  Retirement surveys tend to read like actuarial obituaries — a long litany of percentages chronicling regret, anxiety, and insufficient preparation. Unless, of course, you look at the underlying data. The latest survey from Schroders [i] offers plenty of the former; inflation remains public enemy No. 1; healthcare costs continue to ambush expectations — and more than half of retirees apparently have no idea how long their money will last. But wait. Buried inside that grim arithmetic are some surprisingly encouraging signs — and you don’t have to look very far. For instance, yes, the survey says that 58% of retirees [ii] don’t know how long their savings will last. Which means … 42% actually do (or at least claim to). Given the complexity of retirement income planning — sequence risk, inflation assumptions, healthcare shocks, longevity projections, required minimum distributions, tax strategy, market volatility, and the occasional Congressional “enhancement” — it’s arguably rema...

  Words are funny things. They can entertain, elucidate, inform — and yes, sometimes mislead. It is, of course, one of the reasons that I have long sought to see the actual questions asked in surveys that purport to convey opinions, not to mention the actual data/results behind those assertions, which can hide behind other malleable labels like “some,” “many,” or even “most.” They can also be a result of what I’ll term “malleable” opinion/assessment labels, such as “might” or “somewhat” or “it depends.”    For example, a recent survey claiming that participants [i]  were enthusiastic about gaining access to private markets contained the following statement: "Many believe private markets can provide potential growth and diversification in their portfolios…" However, in this case (looking at the actual findings) “many” appears to be…36%. [ii] The report continues to explain that “…while others are interested but want more information… here the number actually is h...

   We’re often told (via surveys) of any number of retirement plan options that plan participants want. Should it matter? Most recently, we’re assured that participants are  clamoring to have access to private market investments . Before that, it was  cryptocurrency  — and for what seems like months now it’s all been about  retirement income . Apparently vast majorities of participants are eager to have access through their 401(k) to an array of complex financial instruments to which they have, thus far, been largely (or totally) barred — or so surveys say. Indeed, I’ve always been amazed that organizations are able to find so many ostensibly knowledgeable participants to weigh in on these complex topics — particularly since there is an abundance of (other) surveys that suggest that when it comes to financial matters, participants are, largely, clueless. Not that that seems to dampen their collective interest in these new options — though when given a chanc...

When you see a headline that confirms your sense of the world, you’re naturally predisposed to embrace, remember (and these days “share”) it as a validation of what you already perceive reality to be. Indeed, as human beings, we’re drawn to perspectives, surveys, and studies that validate our sense of the world. This “confirmation bias,” as it’s called, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. It also tends to make us discount or dismiss findings that run afoul of our existing beliefs—even if the grounds supporting that premise are shaky, sketchy, or (shudder) downright scurrilous. Here are some things to look for—likely in the fine print or footnotes—as you evaluate those findings. There can be a difference between what people say they will (or might) do and what they actually will. No matter how well targeted they are, surveys (and studies that incorporate the outcome ...

Next month we’ll enter the final full month of the 2012 election cycle with a series of presidential (and one vice presidential) debates. Pundits claim these don’t have much impact on the election’s outcome, but millions of Americans will likely tune in anyway, either to help them make a decision, to reinforce the one they made months ago, or perhaps just for the prospect of seeing a historic gaffe. The answers, of course, will receive the most scrutiny, though as any journalist (or pollster) will tell you, the art lies in asking the “right” question. In the not-too-distant future, EBRI will, in conjunction with Matt Greenwald & Associates, Inc., field the 2013 Retirement Confidence Survey.¹ Over its 23-year history, the RCS has examined the attitudes and behavior of American workers and retirees toward all aspects of saving, retirement planning, and long-term financial security. The survey itself—the longest-running survey of its kind in the nation—is meaningful both for the kin...

I am fortunate enough to have access to a vast array of studies, research, and surveys about this business. Even more fortunate to have access to a PLANSPONSOR research arm that provides an opportunity not only to gather and analyze, but to pose our own questions to a remarkably diverse audience. Still, as Mark Twain once famously wrote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” (1) We recently ran coverage of a survey that spoke to trends among defined benefit plans. That engendered the following response from a reader: Isn't it interesting how perspective can rule the most simple things? The article you refer to that shows defined benefit plans decreasing in number is such a case. Mercer deals with the larger corporate plan sponsors. Their plans are underwater for numerous reasons and are being terminated in wholesale lots. On the other hand, small companies are making defined benefit plans the plan du jour. There are several reasons fo...