Nevin's Data "Points"

Will your 401(k) be chopped by the Chiefs—or find gold with the 49ers? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 57 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the goal line.  Portfolio Prognostications One needs to look back no further than last year’s victory by the (original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs that, according to the Indicator, should have predicted a portfolio predicament for the S&P 500—but wound up with a 25% gain for the year. Or the year before that when the victory by the Los Angeles Rams “should” have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its ...

Will your portfolio soar with the Seahawks, or get pummeled by the Patriots? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Theory would likely predict. The Super Bowl Theory holds that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, whereas when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time; for 38 of the 48 Super Bowls, in fact. It certainly “worked” in 2014, when these same Seattle Seahawks bumped the Broncos, a legacy AFL team, and in 2013, when a dramatic fourth quarter comeback rescued a victory by the Baltimore Ravens who, though representing the AFC, are technically a legacy NFL team via their Cleveland Browns roots. Admittedly, that the markets fared well in 2013 was hardly a true test of the Super Bowl Theory since, as it turned out, both teams in Super Bowl XLVII — the Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers — were ...