Nevin's Data "Points"

   The solution to the coverage gap lies through small business—but only about a third have been approached in the past year about offering one, according to a new survey. That’s not exactly a new revelation—any number of surveys and government data throughout the years indicates that the vast majority of large(r) employers already offer a workplace retirement plan. [i]  The coverage “gap” so often held out as a sign of “failure” by the critics of the 401(k) lies almost exclusively among smaller employers. Which means that closing it will require a focus on small business—and understanding the “resistance.”   At the outset, it’s worth acknowledging a certain truism about small plans (the kind small businesses set up)—they are sold, not bought. Consequently, it was disappointing to see that datapoint about just 31% of the businesses that do not currently offer a plan having been approached in the last 12 months about offering one. [ii]   That survey finding ...

  How well do you (think you) know your significant other? The passage of time—shared experiences and the process of getting to know each other reveals much—and yet I learned something new about my partner of some four decades just last week! That brought to mind one of the favorite game shows of my youth was  The Newlywed Game . The show featured four couples—all of which were to have been married less than two years. Each of the contestant couples were separated—then asked a series of questions designed to test these newlywed couples’ knowledge of each other, and in some cases their collective memories (and willingness to share publicly). Points were assigned based on answers that matched—but the most memorable, of course, were the missed matches—and the inevitable response of the spouse who was absolutely CERTAIN of the response of their partner.   Now, a year of marriage is arguably not long enough to know EVERYTHING about your partner. But, and with Valentine’s ...

Will your 401(k) be chopped by the Chiefs—or find gold with the 49ers? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time—for 41 of the 57 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the goal line.  Portfolio Prognostications One needs to look back no further than last year’s victory by the (original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs that, according to the Indicator, should have predicted a portfolio predicament for the S&P 500—but wound up with a 25% gain for the year. Or the year before that when the victory by the Los Angeles Rams “should” have been a portent of good times, only to see the S&P 500 slump more than 19% for its ...

Last week an article in an industry publication led with the title “401(k) experiment has failed, fueled U.S. retirement crisis, labor economist says.” In what I am sure generated a fair number of “clicks” that turned out to be the pronouncement of none other than Professor Teresa Ghilarducci, teeing up a new book [i] —one that she says aims to review the last 10 years of research by multiple entities on something she’s labeled the “liminal” period of life—that apparently intended to refer to an “intermediate” stage of life. According to the article, she is taking aim at certain assumptions that are made with regard to retirement investing/saving between the ages of 55 and 70. Bad assumptions, apparently. Now, considering that Professor Ghilarducci has written an entire book on this particular subject, extrapolation from a short interview about it (particularly when someone else did the interview) is a hazardous undertaking. But in that article —based on the upcoming ...