Nevin's Data "Points"

I’ve long relished telling “newbies” to the retirement space that ERISA was the   second   big executive act of then-newly enshrined President Gerald R. Ford—less than one month after he took office.  In fairness—and I’m not exactly a kid—I was barely out of high school when that event occurred.  I’ve never had a benefits program (retirement OR healthcare, and us retirement geeks tend to forget that ERISA also has sway over workplace health plans) that wasn’t operating under its auspices—and so, talking about what ERISA has done/changed requires going back before my personal experience. And yet, despite the disparaging acronym “Every Ridiculous Idea Since Adam,” what ERISA has accomplished—and what has emerged in its aftermath—seems truly remarkable to me.  ERISA is, of course, the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974—and on Labor Day 2024, that legislation will be 50 years young. Not that ERISA created either the concept or the reality of pensions and retirement plans; in f

“What if the entire retirement-crisis narrative playing out in opinion polls, the government, and the media was a massive case of confirmation bias?” That’s the provocative position of an intriguing new white paper titled “ America’s ‘Retirement Crisis’: The Emperor Has No Clothes ” by  Andrew Biggs . [i]   Readers of my work will note that with frightening regularity there are any number of assertions, “studies” and surveys all painting a dismal picture of the state of the nation’s retirement—each and every one embraced and promoted with attention-grabbing headlines without so much as a question as to the veracity of the underlying data, the logic of the conclusions drawn, or the motivations of the proponents that have drawn them. Consequently, I was delighted to come across this paper that provides a detailed, thoughtful, and data-driven analysis that focuses on a number of points that have been made (and uncritically trumpeted by the media) by none other than Teresa Ghilarducci [ii]

  Readers of these columns know that for years I held off rolling over my old 401(k) balances. Oh, I had rational reasons for (not) doing so; the institutional pricing of a particular fund in one, the low fees in another, the managed account option in a third—but the reality was that the process of rolling over your accumulated savings has been—and in many cases remains—painful. Rollovers are a big deal. Vanguard reports that annual contributions to IRAs ($701 billion as of 2020) far exceed all DC plan contributions, largely due to rollovers ($618 billion in 2020), while the Investment Company Institute claims that investors now hold an estimated $13.5 trillion in IRAs—“approximately $3 trillion more than in DC plans, despite the fact that 45 million fewer Americans own IRAs than participate in DC plans,” according to the report Two things, in particular, stayed my hand over the years—trying to time the liquidation of funds (I know, but I’m human), and worrying about the timing I’d be