Nevin's Data "Points"

   Will your 401(k) be chopped by the Chiefs — or soar with the Eagles? That’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator[1] would likely conclude, after all. It’s a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time — for 41 of the 58 Super Bowls, in fact. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the goal line. Portfolio Prognostications One needs to look back no further than last year’s victory by the (original AFL) Kansas City Chiefs that, according to the Indicator, should have predicated a portfolio predicament for the S&P 500 — but wound up with a 23% gain for the year. Or the year before that when those (same) Kansas City Chiefs prevailed over the original NFL 49ers — but the S&P 500 still rose 25%. On the other hand, the year before ...

  Did you hear the one about how nearly all U.S. retirement plans have “at least one regulatory or fiduciary ‘red flag’ violation”? Well, here’s hoping you haven’t. Because this so-called “analysis” of Form 5500 filings claims to have discovered that 84% of all (that’s right ALL) retirement plans in the United States have “at least one likely Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) red flag from a regulatory and/or fiduciary violation.” Now, having grabbed your attention, you probably won’t be surprised to find in the fine print of the press release an opportunity to “schedule a cost-free benchmarking audit.” But before you do so, you might want to take a look at the criteria this firm designates as a “red flag.” From their  press release , “Abernathy-Daley defines red flag violations as either ‘infractions, fineable offenses, fiduciary failure, or plan malpractice’ and are separated into two main categories: Regulatory Infraction Red Flags (RIRF) and Egregious Plan Mi...

A recent survey posed an intriguing question: Why are employees not participating in their 401(k)s? The answer(s) were jaw-dropping. Now, I’ve previously expressed skepticism regarding workers’ perception of things like retirement savings needs, much less retirement savings balances, and over the years there has been plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that workers think they have a pension, despite plenty of actual data to indicate that’s a misguided fantasy. In sum, it seems that many, if not most, workers have a pretty distorted view of their financial circumstances, certainly as it relates to retirement. That said, a recent  survey by Principal  takes that to a whole new level.  That survey found that more than half — 59% — of workers who were  not  saving for retirement — thought they WERE saving for retirement. Nearly half (49%) thought they had been automatically enrolled, but nearly as many (41%) thought they had signed up on their own. And three-qua...