Nevin's Data "Points"

  I recently stumbled across a report that claimed a “Massive Gap Between Participant and Attorney Recoveries in ERISA Lawsuits.” That wasn’t exactly news to me, though it was a handy quantification [i]  of a subset of ERISA settlements to make the case that the per-participant recoveries in ERISA litigation pale in comparison to the 25%–33% “pay day” that the plaintiffs’ bar gets in cases where there is a settlement. The  report  — by Davis & Harman — focused on 27 settlements in 2025 involving (only) underperformance and excessive fee cases. In producing their conclusion, they employed some math that was arguably a bit “squishy” [ii]  — and the results are all over the board — but you didn’t need to rely on that to see — and appreciate — the huge gap between what wound up in the lawyers’ pockets versus participants. The rationale is, of course, that class action suits can be expensive to mount and pursue. The attorneys take on these cases, investing their ...

   The Patriots and Seahawks have some Super Bowl history — and some think the outcome might have an impact on the stock market — not to mention your 401(k)!  Yes, that’s what adherents of the so-called Super Bowl Indicator [i]  would have you believe — based on a “theory” that when a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 will rise, and when a team from the old American Football League prevails, stock prices will fall. It’s a “theory” that has been found to be correct nearly 80% of the time — for roughly three-quarters of the 59 Super Bowls to date. Not that it hasn’t been tackled short of the “goal” line…particularly in recent years. Portfolio Prognostications One need to look back no further than last year’s victory by the NFC/original NFL Philadelphia Eagles commanding victory over the AFC/original AFL Kansas City Chiefs to see a testament to this theory — as the S&P 500 closed up nearly 17% in 2025. That said, you mig...