Nevin's Data "Points"

Over the coming weeks, a question that you’re likely to see posed (again and again) about the President’s Executive Order is – “will it work?” “Work” in this case means to expand access to workplace retirement plans, for that is the stated policy of the Trump administration in issuing the order . The answer, of course, will depend in no small part on what emerges as a result. While it’s hard to argue with the underlying principle, and even less with the foundational arguments (“Enhancing workplace retirement plan coverage is critical to ensuring that American workers will be financially prepared to retire” and “Regulatory burdens and complexity can be costly and discourage employers, especially small businesses, from offering workplace retirement plans to their employees”), at this point the order is no more than a directive to the Labor and Treasury Departments to consider and recommend some alternatives. That said, the directives  are reasonably specific – t...

Several years back, I was talking with a colleague about the current state of the U.S. economy – and as a comparison point, I pointed to the mid-1980s. “I wasn’t even born then,” she said. At which point I realized that what I considered to be a relevant point of comparison was, to my coworker, ancient history. That memory comes back to me every year with the release of Beloit College’s annual “ Mindset List .” As that coworker discussion reminds me, a lot can change in (just) 18 years, but these same 18 years also make up the mindset – or “event horizon” ­– of today’s entering college students. The kids many of you just dropped off at college – the Class of 2022 – were (for the most part), born in 2000, the first year of the new millennium. The folks that compile this list know that those differences in experience and points of reference have an impact on the (perceived) relevance of the points we might try to make in college teaching – and even in terms of fina...

Most people view automatic enrollment in a 401(k) as a good thing 1  – but apparently it has a heretofore unappreciated “dark” side. At least that was the focus of a headline in a recent Wall Street Journal article  (subscription required) that asked (and answered) the provocative question: “401(k) or ATM? Automated Retirement Savings Prove Easy to Pluck Prematurely.” That is at least how the Journal chose to position its coverage of a study based on a single firm’s experience with automatic enrollment. That study , according to the Journal , serves to “answer a question that has long concerned employers that put workers into 401(k) plans and give them the option to drop out, rather than requiring them to sign up on their own: Will auto-enrolled workers treat their 401(k)s like automated-teller machines?” Now, I’ve heard a lot of questions over the years from plan sponsors about automatic enrollment – but never that one. Regardless, the Journal says ...

Delegates to last week’s NAPA DC Fly-In Forum had a lot to learn and say about a wide array of topics – but multiple employer plans (MEPs) dominated the discussion. The reason, as has been noted in previous coverage on NAPA Net, is the Small Business Employees Retirement Enhancement Act, introduced earlier this month  by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), which includes provisions regarding so-called “open” MEPs, a type of employee benefit plan that can be maintained as a single plan in which two or more unrelated employers participate. This is a concept that has received bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, and of which the American Retirement Association has been largely supportive, viewing it as a device that could broaden coverage by encouraging employers to offer a plan. However, under this bill, employers that have 100 or fewer employees who earned at least $5,000 during the preceding year and that participate in a pooled employer plan (PEP) registered with the Labor D...

A recent report suggests that participants are “clueless” about decumulation. And who can blame them? Actually, the issue is perhaps more basic than a decumulation strategy. The report  – by Cerulli Associates – based that conclusion on a survey that merely asked 401(k) investors who were at least 45 what they planned to do with those savings when they retired. In response, a quarter said they didn’t know, and another quarter said they planned to consult with an advisor – an alternative that Cerulli characterized as “a marginally more prepared version” of the same response. I’ve long noted that while workers love pensions, they hate (or are at least ambivalent about) annuities – and while there’s a bit of hyperbole there, at least as things stand today, writ large, plan sponsors still seem to be keeping retirement income options at arm’s length  – and by that I mean outside the plan’s distribution options. Participant interest and takeup is even less enthusias...

As we prepare to celebrate the Declaration that marks the birth of this nation, it seems a good time to reflect on some lessons from that experience that hold true even today. Inertia is a powerful force. By the time the Second Continental Congress convened, the “shot heard round the world” had already been fired at Lexington, but many of the representatives in Philadelphia still held out hope for some kind of peaceful reconciliation. Little wonder that, even in the midst of hostilities, there was a strong inclination on the part of several key individuals to put things back the way they had been, to patch them over, rather than to take on the world’s most accomplished military force. As human beings we are largely predisposed to leave things the way they are, rather than making abrupt and dramatic change. Whether this “inertia” comes from a fear of the unknown, a certain laziness about the extra work that might be required, or a sense that advocating change sugge...

I’ve learned two things about Millennials over the years: first, that there are few things they find more bothersome than having Boomers tell them  what they should be doing – and if there is anything more bothersome than the first, it’s being called “Millennials.” Setting that aside, I was recently asked to participate in a forum focused on the challenges to retirement savings faced by Millennials. That event, “The Millennial Perspective: An Intergenerational Discussion on Retirement Savings,” was sponsored by Women for a Secure Retirement (WISER), centered on the organization’s iOme Challenge to develop a comprehensive proposal to address the challenges Millennials face in saving for retirement. Of course, the definition of a Millennial has proven to be surprisingly elusive over time. But those in the forum were willing to accept the definition recently put forth by the Pew Research Center, that it would apply to those born between 1981 and 1996 – which, ...

One of my favorite cinematic quotes is from that Clint Eastwood classic, “Dirty Harry.” It comes at the very beginning of the movie – there’s a bank robbery in process, and Clint Eastwood (in the personage of Inspector “Dirty” Harry Callahan) is trying to wolf down a hot dog when the commotion starts up. Harry, clearly irritated, gets up and heads out, and proceeds to shoot it out with the robbers, and then strolls over to the one who is still breathing, who has a shotgun within reach. Harry proceeds to point out the attributes of his .44 Magnum as he wonders aloud if he still has any bullets left, as the wounded robber contemplates his chances of getting to his shotgun before Harry pulls the trigger. At that point, Harry reminds him: “You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya, punk?” When reading the various surveys of workers who seem confident about their retirement prospects – or don’t – when most haven’t even tried to figure out how ...

Several weeks back, I was invited to participate in a group conversation on retirement and the future. The group of 15 (they’re listed at the end of the document that summarized the conclusions) that  Politico pulled together was diverse, both in background and philosophies, and included academics, think tanks, advocacy groups, and the Hill. It was conducted under Chatham House rules, which means that while our comments might be shared, they wouldn’t be specifically attributed. That latter point was helpful to the openness of the discussion, where several individuals had opinions that they acknowledged wouldn’t be supported by the groups they represent. The conversation touched on a wide range of topics, everything from the key challenges to the current system, the private sector’s role in addressing these problems, the individual’s role (and responsibility) for securing their own retirement, government’s role and the potential for current congressional proposa...

You may have missed it, but there was a bit of a “twitter storm” regarding retirement last week. More specifically, a relatively innocuous post about how much a 30-year-old should have saved toward retirement got a lot of 35-year-olds stirred up. The CBSMarketwatch article  quoted Fidelity as saying that you should have a year’s worth of salary saved by the time you’re 30 – but the real point of controversy  appears to have been driven by the premise that by the time you’re 35, you were supposed to have twice your salary saved. 1 The point, of course, is that it’s easier if you start early. But honestly, devoting 15% of your pay to retirement savings at any age is a daunting prospect, much less at a point when college debt and the prospects of a mortgage, kids and setting aside money for the kids’ college savings loom large. If this is “easy,” imagine what hard looks like! I’ve been a consistent saver over my working career – never missed an opportunity to s...

Life has many lessons to teach us, some more painful than others – and some we’d just as soon be spared. But as graduates everywhere look ahead to the next chapter in their lives, it seems a good time to reflect on some of the lessons we’ve learned. Here are some nuggets I’ve picked up along the way…. Be willing to take all the blame – and to share the credit. There actually are stupid questions. Shun those who are cruel – and don’t laugh at their “jokes.” Never say you’ll never. Be on time. “Bad” people eventually get what’s coming to them. But you may not be there to see it. Always sleep on big decisions. Sometimes the grass looks greener because of the amount of fertilizer. Never email in anger – or frustration. And be extra careful when using the “Reply All” button. If your current boss doesn’t want to hear the truth, it may be time to look for a new one. Never pass up a chance to say “thank you.” If you wouldn’t want your mother to learn about it, don’t do it....

Our view during Super Bowl XLVII. There are some things in life that have to be experienced first-hand. Several years back, my daughter won an all-expenses-paid trip to the Super Bowl for two – and, to my delight, she chose to invite me to go with her. Now, I’m sure some of you have been to a Super Bowl, but it was my first (and, considering ticket prices, I’m guessing my last). And while I’m sure the view from the comfort of home and a big screen TV offered a “better” view of Beyonce’s halftime show, there are things (and people) you see when you are at the event that don’t make a TV producer’s selection (particularly when you happen to be at the Super Bowl where the field lights went out for 34 minutes). Let’s face it, it’s one thing to say you watched the Super Bowl – and something else altogether to say you were there! You wouldn’t know it from the headlines, but there’s actually a lot going on here in our nation’s capital. Like a smoldering ember, in no ...

Rarely a week goes by that a headline, survey or academic paper doesn’t proclaim the reality of a retirement crisis with the certainty generally reserved for topics like the existence of gravity, or the notion that the sun will rise in the east. And certainly based on the data cited, there would seem to be a compelling case that trouble lies ahead for many. That said – as was pointed out by Andrew Biggs at the recent Plan Sponsor Council of America conference – the reality is that good, reliable data is hard to come by. Indeed, many of the reports cited in those headlines rely on what you would expect to be a reliable source; the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, or CPS. 1 Unfortunately, that reliable source turns out to be not-quite-so-reliable. It suffers from relying on what people tell the survey takers, but perhaps more significantly, Biggs, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that the survey only counts as income in r...

Pundits have long worried that retirees wouldn’t have accumulated enough to live on in retirement, but the data suggests that most retirees aren’t exactly burning through their retirement savings. I remember my one and only conversation with my father about retirement income. He had already decided to quit working, and had gathered his assorted papers regarding his savings, insurance, etc. for me to review. Determined to “dazzle” Dad with my years of accumulated financial acumen, I proceeded to outline an impressive array of options that offered different degrees of security and opportunities for growth, the pros and cons of annuities, and how best to integrate it all with his Social Security. And when I was all done, he looked over all the materials I had spread out before him, then turned to me and said – “so how much will I have to live on each month?” See, my dad, like many in his generation, were accustomed to living within their means. And, according to new ...

It is a question that has puzzled philosophers and scientists for centuries: which came first – the chicken or the egg? Similarly, an updated version of a classic survey of retirement confidence finds some interesting attributes among those who are more confident about their prospects – but are those attributes a result of that confidence, or is it the confidence that preceded them? The 28th annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) from the non-partisan Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Greenwald Associates found that Americans are feeling a bit better about their retirement prospects. However, the RCS also found  – as it has in previous years – that certain factors are tied to higher confidence, specifically if they have access to a defined contribution plan, are relatively free from debt, are already retired – or, in a new finding from this year’s RCS – that they are healthy. Now, the connection between access to a retirement plan and saving...