What ‘Average’ 401(k) Balances Really ‘Mean’

  Every few months another headline pops up lamenting the inadequacy of the “average” 401(k) balance. The implication is usually the same: Americans aren’t saving enough, retirement is in peril, and the numbers prove it.

The problem isn’t that the math is wrong.

The problem is that the math is answering the wrong question.

I’ve noted before how misleading averages can be — and, frankly, medians aren’t a lot better when it comes to tracking 401(k) savings. The issue isn’t the arithmetic; it’s the reality of how people actually work and save.

Because people change jobs.

And when they change jobs, they change 401(k)s — and 401(k) providers.

They might leave the balance behind with the old employer (something that happens a lot). They might roll it over to an IRA (which probably happens a lot as well), in which case it disappears from 401(k) tracking altogether. Or they might roll it into their new employer’s plan — though that still seems to be the minority outcome.

Regardless of what they do, something important happens at that moment: their 401(k) accumulation effectively resets.

Fast forward 10 years. That old 401(k) left behind at a previous employer has received no new contributions. When someone looks at that account as an accumulation, it appears stagnant — and usually inadequate.

Meanwhile, the 401(k) at the new employer started from scratch. Contributions resumed, of course, but from a starting point of zero. They might be aged 40, mid-career, but THAT 401(k) balance looks like they just started.

In other words, the saver didn’t stop saving. Their savings are split in two (and sometimes more than two, depending on job change. As a result, when each recordkeeper publishes reports on “average” balances — well, they only have part of the picture.

Sometimes far less than half.

The Rare Glimpse of the Full Picture

Over the years, one of the few organizations able to transcend these limitations has been the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI)/Investment Company Institute (ICI). By combining data across multiple recordkeepers and tracking individual participants over time, EBRI has occasionally been able to piece together something closer to the real story.

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When they do, the results look very different from the usual headlines.

In analyses that follow consistent participants — people who remain in the database and continue contributing over time — balances are dramatically higher than the averages typically cited in the press.

In one such analysis, consistent savers had nearly double the average account balance of the broader database, and nearly four times the median balance.

Which makes you wonder about all those conclusions based on averages of inconsistent participants.

Or, put differently, averages that mix savers with non-savers, continuous participants with short-term ones, and workers who may have balances scattered across several plans.

The math is correct — but the conclusion is anything but.

Encouraging Signs in the Latest Data

That context makes the latest quarterly report from Fidelity particularly interesting.

Now, to be clear, Fidelity’s data only reflects account balances within its own system. But because it can track participants who have been saving continuously within its plans, it offers another useful lens on long-term saving behavior.

And the numbers are actually pretty encouraging.

Among participants with 15 years of continuous savings, balances are approaching $700,000. Even those with just five years of continuous participation are nearing $400,000.

What’s especially striking is who’s leading the way.

Gen X.

Yes, that much-maligned “middle child” generation between the Boomers and Millennials appears to be saving more aggressively than either group in these cohorts.

Apparently the forgotten generation has been quietly doing its homework.

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Now, none of this is meant to suggest that 401(k) balances are universally sufficient, or that retirement readiness isn’t a legitimate concern.

But averages — particularly the ones most often cited — are, at best, a blunt instrument for measuring that reality.

They frequently combine savers and non-savers, new participants and long-tenured ones, small plans and large plans, high earners and entry-level workers, those at the cusp of retirement and those just getting started. They split individuals’ savings across multiple accounts and sometimes lose track of them entirely. Oh, and things like compensation level, geography and even gender? Never even acknowledged.

The resulting number is mathematically accurate.

But as a measure of retirement readiness?

It’s nearly useless. Worse, actually — it paints a reality that is, surely for some, disheartening.  

Which brings us back to what actually matters.

Consistent saving.

Because when you look at people who contribute regularly over time — whether through EBRI’s long-term datasets or recordkeeper cohorts like Fidelity’s — the story changes dramatically.

Balances grow. Substantially.

And that suggests something worth remembering the next time someone waves around the latest “average 401(k) balance” headline as proof that the system is failing.

For those who actually use it as intended, the 401(k) was never meant to be the end.

It’s a means to one.

• Nevin E. Adams, JD