Nevin's Data "Points"

Last week, a trio of academics rolled out a plan to “save” Social Security—by undermining the 401(k). Their “ plan ” is diabolically simple, though not unique. They’d just take away the tax preferences that support and encourage employment-based retirement plans—and “give” that money to Social Security.  It was admittedly an odd combination—Alicia Munnell, director and founder of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (which often has pretty negative things to say about the private retirement system [i] ), and Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, who has traditionally been a voice of reason on such matters—pointing to actual tax filing data to refute claims of a retirement crisis. Then again, Biggs, a former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration, and now a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has recently been nominated by President Biden to serve on the Social Security Adviso...

Despite long being called the “third rail” of American politics, Social Security—or more precisely its viability—has reemerged as an issue in the 2024 presidential campaign. It came up most recently in a mini-GOP debate between former U.N. ambassador/South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida governor Ron DeSantis. Haley reaffirmed her previous statements that changes would be required to shore up the financial viability of that system (and, arguably more critically, Medicare)—taking pains to emphasize that she wasn’t calling for changes that would impact current/close-to-retiring individuals.  For his part DeSantis—to whom the question was initially posed—maintained that there was no need to raise the age for full retirement benefits (apparently due to COVID’s impact on life expectancy), as though that were the only potential remedy required [i] (he did express confidence that something would be worked out long-term). And both former President Trump and Pres...

Two headlines on NAPA Net caught my eye this past weekend—provocative “what if” type questions. I’m talking about “ Will Retirement Income Solutions Finally Break Through in 2024? ” and “ Will Managed Accounts (Finally) Take Hold as QDIAs? ” Both, of course, included the word “finally” in the title(s)—no doubt because the underlying premise has been touted in previous years, but (mostly) come to naught.  And yet even now, both were basically based on predictions of organizations/individuals that have—as my friend John Sullivan put it—“a dog in the fight.” More specifically, the former finds heightened plan sponsor interest expressed (in an annuity-friendly trade survey)—and provisions in the original SECURE Act. And the latter finds a similar level of interest by plan sponsors in trading out target-date funds as QDIAs for managed accounts—on a premise that fees in the latter will decline and that recordkeepers will be able—and plan participants willing—to incorporat...

There is a “common wisdom” in our business that suggests that all plan sponsors are, more or less, alike; that large plans are the inevitable early adopters of trends that, sooner or later, trickle down to plans of all sizes. Consequently, those who make their living trying to discern trends and patterns frequently focus on the behaviors in evidence at larger programs—figuring that, in three years or so, those same characteristics will emerge across the spectrum. There’s some logic to that perspective—and at least anecdotal evidence to support it. Human beings—including plan fiduciaries—frequently draw comfort and solace from the experience of others, and smaller programs can hardly be faulted for adopting plan designs and approaches that have been “vetted” by programs with more copious resources. Sure enough, there are areas in which larger programs once dominated—but over time those variances have disappeared. For example, according to the Plan Sponsor Council of A...

  A brand new year awaits us – and with the New Year comes an opportunity to assess and reassess – for some when, resolutions for the cessation of bad behaviors and the beginning of better ones are in vogue. Here are some for plan fiduciaries for 2024 – that could benefit plan outcomes for years to come.  See if your target-date options are over-weight(ed)     Flows to target-date funds have continued to be strong – and little wonder, what with their positioning as the qualified default investment alternative (QDIA) of choice for most 401(k)s. That said, the vast majority of those assets are still under the purview of an incredibly small number of firms – nearly all of which (despite marketing brochures to the contrary) appear to share very similar views as to what an appropriate glidepath is supposed to look like – and nearly all of which have embraced the notion that a target-date is little more than a speed bump along the “through” target-date gli...

“You better watch out, you better not cry, you better not pout…” Those are, of course, the opening lyrics to that holiday classic, “Santa Claus is Coming to Town.” And while the tune is jaunty enough, the message—that there’s some kind of elfin “eye in the sky” keeping tabs on us—has always struck me as just a little bit… creepy. That said, once upon a time, as Christmas neared, it was not uncommon for my wife and I to use those images to caution our occasionally misbehaving brood that they had best be attentive to how their (not uncommon) misbehaviors might be viewed by the big guy at the North Pole. In support of that notion, a few years back—well, now it’s quite a few years back—when my kids still believed in the (SPOILER ALERT) reality of Santa Claus, we stumbled across an ingenious website that purported to offer a real-time assessment of their “naughty or nice” status. Indeed, nothing we said (or did, or threatened) ever had the impact of that website—if not on the...

My wife and I are in the process of moving to a new home—and it occurs to me that the process of changing homes is a lot like changing recordkeepers. Here’s how. Know What You’re Looking For We’ve made about a half dozen moves during our 37-year marriage—all driven by work, anchored by commuting concerns, and—in all but the first and last—school considerations. However, this particular move (my wife swears it’s the last one) literally started with a blank sheet of paper and a “so where would you like to live” conversation. Several conversations, actually. For this move, our high-level priorities involved climate (we’re not fans of snow, hurricanes, wildfires, or earthquakes), ready access to good healthcare (we’re not getting any younger), and proximity to cultural activities/things to do (we’re not THAT old). Indeed, with no particular ties to our current residence, and no external anchoring factors like grandchildren to consider (those with four legs don’t really “co...

Over the years, so-called personal finance experts have provided valuable information—but also a smattering of misinformation—but I can think of none quite as egregious as some remarks recently made by Dave Ramsey. By now I’m sure you’ve heard—or heard about—his “counsel” with regard to acceptable retirement withdrawal rates—and his disparagement of the “supernerds” who would dare to disagree with him. As for that counsel, at a high level, Ramsey maintains that an 8% withdrawal rate is not only doable, but sustainable. All you have to do is be invested 100% in equities—oh, and assume a 12% return. [i] Of course, such machinations have always been predicated on assumptions—about inflation, about market returns and, most notably, about the length of life itself. That said, this didn’t become a specific focus—a so-called “rule of thumb”—until 1994, whe...

Like many of you, I have spent a fair amount of time over the past couple of weeks reading and analyzing the impact and import of the new fiduciary rule proposal—not to mention the legal pundits who seek to tell us what they think it means, or might mean, regardless of what the proposal actually says. At a high level, it seems to me (and several well-regarded ERISA attorneys) that retirement plan advisors who are today operating under the auspices of PTE 2020-02 should have little to worry about under the new proposal. Indeed, the biggest controversies around the proposed rule seem to be extending the reach of PTE 2020-02 to organizations and entities that hadn’t previously had to adhere to those requirements.  But if you’re already doing so—and surely if you’re a retirement plan advisor you are—there’s little of concern in the proposal. In fact, you might well draw comfort from the possibility that entities and advisors that have competed with you for rollover bus...

Thanksgiving has been called a “uniquely American” holiday—and so, even in a year in which there has been what seems to be an unprecedented amount of disruption, frustration, stress, discomfort and loss—there remains so much for which to be thankful. And as we approach the holiday season, it seems appropriate to take a moment to reflect upon, and acknowledge—to give thanks, if you will. While it’s the celebration following a successful harvest held by the group we now call “Pilgrims” and members of the Wampanoag tribe in 1621 that provides most of the imagery around the holiday, Thanksgiving didn’t become a national observance until much later. Incredibly, it wasn’t marked as a national observance until 1863—right in the middle of the Civil War, and at a time when, arguably, there was little for which to be thankful. Indeed, President Abraham Lincoln, in his proclamation regarding the observance, called on all Americans to ask God to “commend to his tender care all tho...